Thank goodness despite my prediction there have been no terror attacks in Istanbul despite warning by Turkish intelligence that mass transit might be targeted. My suspicion is that this is because the tacit agreement not to escalate hostilities hasn't entirely broken down between Turkey and the Islamic State, since after a token attack on ISIS Turkey has focused most of its military strikes and police raids on anti-ISIS Kurds.
Since June elections has been a hung parliament, with the AKP having the most but not a majority of MPs, largely because of the success of the leftist pro-Kurdish HDP party, which had been mediating a cease-fire and peace process between Turkey and the PKK. If a coalition is not formed, there will be an early election called this fall. I think with an eye on this next election and adopting the old "if you can't beat 'em, disenfranchise 'em and round up their leaders" strategy, Erdogan, who would very much like a return to one-party AKP rule and a majority strong enough to rewrite the constitution to make his presidency even more powerful, has been ramping up nationalist rhetoric against the HDP. Erdogan demanded that HDP MPs' parliamentary immunity revoked, after which to be badass HDP leader Demirtas announced that the HDP would submit a bill to lift their own immunity and encouraged all other parties to do the same in the name of accountability (not happening). The rumors are now that a legal case will be opened soon to shut down the HDP (as happened to its predecessor Kurdish-left parties: HEP > DEP > HADEP > DTP).
Meanwhile in eastern Turkey violence is ramping back up. The PKK launched a suicide tractor attack on a Turkish police station the other day, numerous areas in the east have been re-designated "military zones", and even opposition Turkish newspapers are equating the PKK and ISIS and stirring up anxiety among genteel White Turks.
Since June elections has been a hung parliament, with the AKP having the most but not a majority of MPs, largely because of the success of the leftist pro-Kurdish HDP party, which had been mediating a cease-fire and peace process between Turkey and the PKK. If a coalition is not formed, there will be an early election called this fall. I think with an eye on this next election and adopting the old "if you can't beat 'em, disenfranchise 'em and round up their leaders" strategy, Erdogan, who would very much like a return to one-party AKP rule and a majority strong enough to rewrite the constitution to make his presidency even more powerful, has been ramping up nationalist rhetoric against the HDP. Erdogan demanded that HDP MPs' parliamentary immunity revoked, after which to be badass HDP leader Demirtas announced that the HDP would submit a bill to lift their own immunity and encouraged all other parties to do the same in the name of accountability (not happening). The rumors are now that a legal case will be opened soon to shut down the HDP (as happened to its predecessor Kurdish-left parties: HEP > DEP > HADEP > DTP).
Meanwhile in eastern Turkey violence is ramping back up. The PKK launched a suicide tractor attack on a Turkish police station the other day, numerous areas in the east have been re-designated "military zones", and even opposition Turkish newspapers are equating the PKK and ISIS and stirring up anxiety among genteel White Turks.
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